The Miami Heat regressed in the 2020–21 season after their unexpected run to the NBA Finals.
Their regular season was quite consistent with the previous year, but there was no magic in the playoffs.
The Heat were swept in the first round by the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks after posting the lowest points-per-game output (95.4%) of any club in any playoff series during the past five years.
Both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo struggled to score, either by driving to the hoop or from the free throw line, and neither player was successful from beyond the arc.
Nonetheless, Miami Maintains its status as a Tourist Hotspot.
The Heat outbid the Clippers and Pistons for free agency Kyle Lowry, stole point guard P.J. Tucker from the Bucks, and held on to shooter Duncan Robinson.
Despite the ages of their stars (35 and 36 for Lowry and Tucker, respectively), the Heat have the personnel to be a top-five Eastern Conference club and a defensive powerhouse.
The Primary Questions:
If they are offensive, how do they do it? Last season, Butler had the fourth-worst EFG% among 201 players who took at least 200 shots from beyond the arc, at 40.4%.
In a sample of 468 players who had logged at least 100 minutes, Tucker’s 4.7 field goal attempts per 36 minutes placed dead last.
Adebayo’s shooting range may have increased, but he’s still not good enough to play on the floor.
So, the biggest difficulty for the Heat should be finding a way to score effectively with two or three of those guys on the court at once. The ability for Lowry to score while dribbling the ball will also be crucial.
Forces the Seasons:
In nine of Erik Spoelstra’s 13 seasons with the Heat, the team’s defence has finished in the top ten in the league.
They have the personnel to win 11 of 14 games this season, thanks to the additions of Lowry, Butler, Tucker, and Adebayo.
As the season progresses, they will become a more formidable opponent and improve their offence. However, they have lost some of their depth and may still be missing a key component or two before they can challenge the Milwaukee Bucks and the Brooklyn Nets. The score is projected to end up being 48–34.
Intended Initial Group Size: 5
In the last two seasons, Kyle Lowry has shot 36.2% from 3-point range from the pull-up, good for 20th best among 65 players with 200+ attempts.
Duncan Robinson has had a high volume (nine.9 three-point attempts per thirty-six minutes played) and efficiency (43 percent) over the past two seasons.
Jimmy Butler: Makes up for his poor 3-point shooting by becoming a menace at the charity stripe. Makes a habit of picking off opposing players without getting called for a foul.
P.J. Tucker: The Heat will have someone (who will turn 37 in May) to protect Kevin Durant if they face Brooklyn in the playoffs.
Bam Adebayo is an offensive focal point and a top-tier defence. Recent high school graduate who keeps becoming better on the offensive while being only 24.
Basement of Critical Imrortance
Last year’s team also included Tyler Herro, who had a great final stretch (60.5% effective FG% in April/May) but faltered in the postseason.
Although traded to the Heat in March, Victor Oladipo only appeared in four games with the Heat. In an effort to relaunch his career, he has returned to the league on a one-year contract.
In principle, Markieff Morris is a big man with shooting ability. Only shot 31% from beyond the arc in 2018–19, down from 39% the year before.
Recent five Seasons
The Heat’s performance over the past five years in numbers…
| Season | W | L | PCT | OffRtg | Rank | DefRtg | Rank | NetRtg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 40 | 32 | 0.556 | 110.6 | 18 | 110.7 | 10 | -0.1 | 17 |
| 2019-20 | 44 | 29 | 0.603 | 111.9 | 7 | 109.3 | 12 | +2.7 | 8 |
| 2018-19 | 39 | 43 | 0.476 | 106.7 | 26 | 107.1 | 7 | -0.4 | 17 |
| 2017-18 | 44 | 38 | 0.537 | 106.2 | 21 | 105.8 | 8 | +0.4 | 16 |
| 2016-17 | 41 | 41 | 0.500 | 107.4 | 17 | 106.4 | 6 | +1.0 | 10 |
- Offense / Possessions Percentage Ratio = OffRtg
- Defense Points Per 100 Possessions = Defense DefRtg
- Difference in points scored per 100 opportunities = NetRtg.
Fact to Report
The Heat outscored their opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions while Butler was on the court (+5.2) compared to when he was not (-5.9). Among the 233 athletes that logged at least 1,000 minutes for a single team, there was the sixth largest disparity.
Butler was one of two players (the other being Rudy Gobert) to log at least 1,000 minutes and have a plus or minus five point differential per 100 possessions on both ends of the floor.
In terms of bench point differential per 100 possessions, Miami placed 22nd (worst among playoff teams) (-1.4).